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When will high-performance battery chips become popular after the conversion rate exceeds 23%?

On March 4, 2019, the 5000mw project of Shanxi Changzhi technology leading base officially entered the construction stage. With the start of all the technology leaders, the focus of the industry will be once again on the key projects of the technology leaders:

1. Each photovoltaic technology leader base uses single crystal modules, and perc technology is the main technology;

2. The efficiency of the battery is over 23%, among which the n-type battery technology accounts for 1 / 3;

3. The double-sided components become the mainstream, and the component efficiency exceeds 20%.

Who is the master of P & n battery technology?

Driven by the "photovoltaic manufacturing industry specifications" and the "photovoltaic leader" plan, the production technology of various crystalline silicon batteries has made rapid progress. In 2018, according to the data of Photovoltaic Industry Association, the technical battery efficiency of the large-scale production of p-type single crystal perc battery increased to 21.8%, 0.5% higher than that in 2017; the average conversion efficiency of n-type PERT single crystal battery has reached 21.5%.

It is reported that, as a leading enterprise in the photovoltaic industry, Jingke energy has recorded about 24% of its p-type and n-type battery technology experimental data. According to the newly released series of module products of Trina Solar, after reaching the threshold of 400W power, the high-efficiency photovoltaic module is moving towards the stage of conversion efficiency exceeding 20%.

With the advancement of high-efficiency battery module technology, according to the data of energy trend advanced technology report of new energy research center of Jibang new energy network, in 2019, the market share of single crystal perc will reach more than 50%. After the production of perc technology has matured, the cost-effective selective emitter (SE) technology will become the first choice of photovoltaic enterprises, and it is expected that SE will grow steadily to 2020 It has more than 50% market share of perc battery.

Figure: production status of Se

Source: energytrend advanced technology report

Compared with p-type battery, the capacity of n-type battery is limited by the improvement of p-type perc battery capacity and technology in recent two years. Even though the overall capacity is improved, the market share of n-type battery is relatively stable.

At present, double-sided n-type PERT battery and heterojunction (hjt) battery have entered mass production. From the perspective of the top five n-type battery enterprises in the world:

The localization manufacturing of n-type technology supply chain has not been fully popularized, and there is only one Chinese enterprise at present.

Only the top three enterprises can break through 1GW capacity alone, so there is still considerable room for n-type enterprises to develop technology.

The number one photovoltaic enterprise in 2019 is South Korean LGE. The main reason lies in LGE's commitment to the development of diversified technologies. Although there is not too much capacity for each technology, in addition to maintaining the development of a small number of diversified product lines, it will also make a small expansion. The overall n-type product line, in addition to hjt (400MW), also covers the capacity of n-pert (600MW) and IBC (600MW).

Figure: prediction of capacity ratio of n-type battery in 2019

Source: energytrend advanced technology report

According to energy trend analysis of Jibang new energy network, the future development of n-type battery depends on the potential of technology and the improvement of market acceptance.

Compared with the p-type battery, the n-type battery has a high manufacturing cost. Under the same specification of products, you will still choose the cheaper p-type products.

At present, in addition to the performance improvement of high conversion efficiency, the theoretical low attenuation range of n-type battery is expected to become an important competitiveness of products, but due to the lack of too much mass production data, the advantages of low attenuation still need to be proved by the mass production data of n-type battery enterprises in the future.

Figure: production capacity ratio prediction of n-type battery and total battery

Source: energytrend advanced technology report


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